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Missive #212

I thought I would continue my thoughts on the rhymes in history that we might be seeing in the not too distant future.

The Strauss–Howe generational theory states that a crisis recurs in American history after every saeculum ( a period of 80-100 years). The crisis are not always the same but they do rhyme. Using an 80 year cycle I looked for such rhymes and found that President Lincoln was assassinated in 1865 with his VP Andrew Johnson becoming president. Johnson filled the remaining term surviving the first impeachment of a president. Some 80 years later (1945) we find President Roosevelt serving his third term (although confined much of the time to a wheelchair) but died in office and Truman, his VP, filled the term.

I now fantasize about what the rhymes might be. Trump become president once more with Abbott as his VP. He is assassinated in 2025 (two saeculums after Lincoln), Abbott becomes president (also confined to a wheelchair), he is impeached, convicted by the Senate (the first in US history) and Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives becomes president (only the second person to do that without being elected as president or vice president; Ford being the first when Nixon resigned). Do these events lead to a Civil War?

I use ‘Civil War’ in these comments only because it is customary. Sometimes Second Civil War is the term used. I believe that a civil war is any war that is fought by opposing forces drawn from the citizens within one nation therefor using the term is not wrong it just is too broad based. I would say that what is being forecast/feared is America’s Third Civil War: The War of Independence being the first, the failed Confederacy Independence being the second.

While I’m about it I might as well have my say about “Revolution”. The First American Civil War has also been called the Revolutionary War but that is wrong as well. A revolution involves the attempted change in political regimes. That is not what the war in the late 18th century in America was about; it was a war of Independence , the British colonies were not trying to change the British regime they simply wanted to leave. The same is true of the Second American Civil War or what I claim to have been a failed Confederacy Independence War; they did not want to change the United States government they simply wanted to leave. If there is an American Third Civil War I think it might begin as the second Texan Independence War; the first one was with Mexico the second would be with the United States. Again there was no ‘revolution’ just a desire to leave.

In all those cases, and many others, there need not have been any war. If someone wants to leave then as is said in the Book of Exodus; “Let my people go”.

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