Missive #670

“In one very real sense,” David Lavender writes, “the story of the Oregon Trail begins with Columbus.” This opening suggests the panoramic sweep of his history of that famous trail. In chiseled, colorful prose, Lavender illustrates the “westward vision” that impelled the early explorers of the American interior looking for a northwest passage and send fur trappers into the region charted by Lewis and Clark.This is a good read but it would have been a rather short book if it had been just about the Oregon Trail. About half the book was about the fur trappers. For the emigrants following the trappers’ routes, that vision gradually grew into a sense of a manifest American destiny. Lavender describes the efforts of emigration societies, of missionaries like Marcus and Narcissa Whitman, and of early pioneer settlers like Hall Jackson Kelley, Jason Lee, and Thomas Jefferson Farnham, as well as the routes they took to the “Promised Land.” He concludes by recounting the first large-scale emigrations of 1843–45, which steeled the U. S. government for war with Mexico and agreements with Britain over the Oregon boundary. — Book promo @ goodreads.com

I went to Willcox last Saturday with the intention of having breakfast at the Plaza Restaurant which the Internet claims is open 7 days during the week at 5:00 or 6:00. I got there a few minutes before 7:00 and found the door open but it was dark inside and a woman came out of the kitchen a told me they we closed. For the day or forever? I didn’t ask. Went to Country Pride which has been my usual stop but wanted to try a different restaurant. From there I went across the street and filled Desperado’s tank with gas at Love’s and got groceries at Safeway which is only a few blocks away then back to the Park. That was about it for the day.

The past five days have been a bit of eary summer with a couple of day high temperatures at 79 with the highest at 85. Have had the A/C working in the afternoon the past two days. I also disconnected the basement heater when I got back to the Park on Saturday. The last freezing morning was the day before this summer started. I may be pushing my luck but it is easy enough to reconnect the heater.

It is unlikely that the Iranians will back down. Any concession by Trump would be political suicide – it would almost certainly cost him the midterm elections in November. If he does not concede and Iran remains steadfast, then the same will probably be true. — Thoughts In Dubai by Peter Hanseler

The central element of the initial strategy appears to have been a classic attempt at “decapitation,” targeting the Supreme Leader, his family, and other high-level figures. The underlying logic is well known: by removing the apex of decision-making authority, internal disorganization, succession disputes, and operational paralysis would follow. This approach is recurrent in Western military doctrine, especially when directed against states considered systemic adversaries.

However, this type of strategy tends to fail when applied to highly institutionalized states equipped with complex political-military structures. Iran is not a fragile entity dependent on a single personal command center. It is a system with multiple layers of authority, defined chains of succession, and deep integration between the state apparatus, regular armed forces, and parallel security structures. Moreover, it is a civilization with millennia of historical continuity, whose contemporary political identity was consolidated precisely under external pressure. The elimination of an individual leader, even if symbolically significant, does not automatically dismantle a state with this degree of structural cohesion. — Unexpected Iranian reaction paralyzed Americans and Israelis on the first day of war by Lucas Leiroz

My thoughts. President Trump can put paid to any thoughts he might have had about receiving a Nobel Peace Prize. I also think he is now marked for assassination by Iran which is far better at doing that than the US bunglers which have given it a go.